We are four days away from “Selection Sunday”, and the College Football Playoff race this year looks a little different from years past. What’s the difference? We are missing traditional powers such as Oklahoma and Ohio State, who are almost a lock to not make the playoff with each team having two losses and not playing for their conference championships. Remember Clemson? Oh yeah, they have three loses and are not playing for their conference championship either. Alabama is hanging in the three spot with only one loss, but have quite the matchup against undefeated and #1 seed Georgia. Michigan and Cincinnati, welcome to the party!
Well, it’s too early to start congratulating teams at this point in the year, chaos still has time to shake up this College Football season. What if teams lose this weekend, does this crack the door for a potential two loss team so sneak in to the CFP for the first time? Let’s play the “what if” game. But first, what are we looking at this weekend?
Georgia is sure to be a lock, even with a loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship game. The Bulldogs have been dominant this year, with the strength of this team being their defense. I suspect that they would only fall to the #3 spot, even if they take an “L” this weekend. If this exact scenario plays out and they do fall to the hands of the Crimson Tide, Alabama would surely find itself once again at the top of the CFP’s final rankings come Selection Sunday. Being a won loss SEC Champ, with the best win in the country, this would not be up for much of a debate.
Michigan on the other hand, is the only representative left from the BIG 10 Conference. With Michigan State, Ohio State and Iowa all having two losses each, the Wolverines are in the drivers seat to be the #2 seed assuming they prevail over Iowa in the BIG 10 Championship Game. As Colin Cowherd likes to point out, Iowa is the “Fake-ID” of College Football, and I completely agree. We all got very excited and gave the Hawkeyes way too much credit to start the year. Remember when they were ranked #2? Oh my, how far we have come. Defensively, their secondary is filled with ball-hawks and they have a solid front 7, but don’t expect them to move the ball much against Michigan with David Ojabo and Aidan Hutchinson on the D-Line for the Wolverines.
Oklahoma State is certainly in a good position to sneak into the fourth spot, only if Alabama loses to Georgia. Simple. If this happens, Cincinnati would have to move up to the #3 seed, with the Cowboys rounding out at the #4 seed. The Bearcats have looked very good all year, with balance on both sides of the ball (QB Desmond Ridder and CBs Coby Bryant & Ahmad Gardner) and look to continue their run at a CFP birth and perfect season.
Now … what happens if chaos absolutely unfolds?
Let’s play around with the following chaotic scenario:
- Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship. This would most likely remove Alabama from the CFP discussion.
- Michigan loses to Iowa in the BIG 10 Championship. Not only does this most likely remove Michigan, but the BIG 10 as a whole.
- Cincinnati loses to Houston in the AAC Championship. The Bearcats would be removed from this discussion, ending any chance for a Group of 5 team to make a run at the Playoff this year.
- Oklahoma State loses to Baylor in the BIG 12 Championship. Similar story, the Cowboys and BIG 12 would be removed from consideration.
So where does this leave us, with Georgia…Notre Dame (wow they snuck back in) … and who else? Notice how we kept using the words “most likely” in the above scenario. Now it is time to start looking at two loss teams. At some point, if everyone loses, two loss teams have a real shot at getting in! Now, for all of this to happen, it would be an absolutely wild weekend of College Football, and I am by no means predicting this to be the case. However, it is possible. I don’t think that Georgia has been truly tested, but I am not picking Alabama to win that game. Michigan is better than Iowa, but hangovers after big emotional wins are a real thing (I’m talking about Ohio State). I do like Cincinnati over Houston, but the Cougars have rattled of 11 straight wins since their week 1 loss to Texas Tech. Does anyone really trust Oklahoma State to beat Baylor? Both teams have a win over Oklahoma, so that should be a tight game.
These scenarios almost never turn out like this, but you cannot completely count out a two loss team with this College Football season, as chaos still has time to mess everything else up.
